A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
